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Cardinals vs. Phillies Prop betting odds for Sunday night baseball

Gag Bet No. 1: Goldie Socks

Paul Goldschmidt has gotten the best of Philadelphia Phillies starter Taijuan Walker in his career, going 5-for-10 with a home run, five RBIs and a 1.600 OPS. I’m betting he continues that streak of success by scoring at least two combined hits, runs and RBIs on Sunday.

The veteran has been in good form, achieving this number in five of his last seven matches. It’s been a notable struggle for him this season, which isn’t typical for the slugger, but there have been enough positive signs lately that I’m willing to buy a good matchup.

Goldy’s OPS hit a low of .531 on May 11, but he has been doing much better since then, with a hit in 15 of his last 18 games. That has put his OPS at .662, and while that’s still a far cry from his career average of .900, it’s clear he’s turning a corner.

Walker has been on the struggle bus this season with a 5.51 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Goldschmidt got the best of him even when he was at the top of his game, and now he would have to continue dealing damage to a pitcher who essentially issues coupons for free passes on – and around – the bases.

Paul Goldschmidt prop: More than 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs (-140 at DraftKings)

Prop Bet #2: Walking on Thin Ice

Let’s talk more about Walker’s struggles. Things were pretty bleak, as his Baseball Savant page reads more like a horror story than the back of a baseball card.

Here are the stats in which he ranks below the 10th percentile around the MLB: xERA (fourth percentile), average exit velocity (fifth), whiff% (first), barrel% (second), and hard hit% (eighth). He doesn’t let hitters miss and they absolutely crush the ball when they put it in play. His xBA (11th percentile), chase% (21st), K% (19th), and groundball% (14th) all missed the mark for being in the bottom 10th percentile, but are concerning numbers nonetheless.

There’s no way around it: Walker isn’t doing a good job on the mound. There are a few props I like to fade Walker, such as him allowing over 5.5 hits at -145 odds, but I’m looking for higher-money opportunities as I pay the price for my other two props. So I’m betting on him allowing more than 3.5 runs at odds of +120.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been on a roll lately with right-handed pitching, ranking eighth in wRC+ (110) and 10th in OPS (.726) over the past 15 days. This isn’t an easy matchup for Walker and his atrocious 6.17 xERA, so I’m going with the fade train.

He allowed five earned runs in his last start while allowing nine hits and two walks against the San Francisco Giants. The 31-year-old gave up six hits and four walks in his previous start, meaning he is averaging 10.5 baserunners allowed in his last two starts.

Walker’s average of 3.3 earned runs allowed per start. Considering he’s allowed at least nine runners on base in four of his five full starts, more damage is coming his way — and soon.

Taijuan Walker prop: More than 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: JT has a real problem with Lynn

Lance Lynn gets the start for St. Louis and he’s largely returned to his usual self after a disastrous 2023 campaign. His ERA has dropped from 5.73 a year ago to 3.45 this season and while his peripheral numbers aren’t as impressive his (4.13 xERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.30 xFIP), it’s clear he’s made some improvements after serving free dingers with a side of walks for all of 2023.

One hitter vs. pitcher matchup that stood out to me is Lynn’s performance against JT Realmuto. The catcher is just 1-for-12 against the veteran with a walk and four strikeouts, “good” for a paltry .237 OPS. Do you smell that too? Weft.

Realmuto is coming off his worst campaign since he was a rookie in 2015, with a .749 OPS that isn’t terrible, but also below his usual stellar production. The 33-year-old is showing signs of aging, hitting for less power (0.160 ISO his lowest since 2016), drawing fewer walks (5.4% BB% lowest since 2016) and striking out more often (26.5% K% highest in his career).

Lynn may no longer be an ace, but he has been an effective starting pitcher this season and has had historic success against the Phillies (3.07 ERA in five starts with a .584 OPS against). He’s found ways to get Realmuto out in the past and that’s a job that’s easier to do now than ever before.

JT Realmuto prop: Less than 1.5 total bases (-125 at bet365)